ADDIS ABEBA – Drier than normal conditions have been forecasted for much of Ethiopia, parts of Eritrea, South Sudan and Sudan in the coming four months.
The forecast for the rainy season starting from June to September was made at the 52nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 52).
Organized by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) on “Mitigation of Climate Risks for Resilience building” held on Wednesday in Addis Abeba.
The forum brought together climate experts, decision makers, and representatives of climate-sensitive sectors such as Agriculture, and Hydropower, Water Resources, among others
In the end, IGAD’s released the regional consensus on climate outlook for the June to September 2019 rainy season.
It indicates that there will be an increased likelihood of drier than normal rainfall over much of Ethiopia, south-western Eritrea, South Sudan, parts of western Sudan.
Similar conditions are anticipated for some region on the Sudan/Ethiopia border, northern and far-western Uganda, western Rwanda as well as coastal areas of Kenya and Somalia.
It also says there is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over Djibouti and surrounding lowlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, most parts of Sudan, parts of south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya and the Lake Victoria region of Uganda and Tanzania.
The forecast also indicates a delay in the start of the rains by 1-3 weeks over the northern Rift Valley, the western equatorial sector, the coastal regions of Kenya and northern Somalia, and in Sudan.
“There is also an indication of a likelihood of early cessation over eastern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and the cluster bordering Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Kenya. These areas are also likely to experience long dry spells during the season,” it said in a statement.
On the other hand, temperature forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer than normal surface temperatures over much of the northern, eastern and south-eastern Greater Horn of Africa as well as a region over north-western South Sudan.
Cooler to near normal temperatures are indicated across central parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, it said.
The highlands of the equatorial sector are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions during June to September 2019 period.
ICPAC is the specialized IGAD institution that covers IGAD members’ states plus Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.